The Ethiopian government of Prime Minister Meles Zenawi appears uncomfortably aware that defeating the Union of Islamic Courts (UIC) in conventional battle in no way guarantees the stable Somalia military intervention was supposed to create. The UIC is defeated but far from broken. Its capacity for guerrilla warfare and assassination is probably considerable. Meanwhile some of the old warlords appear to be trying to regain their fiefdoms in and around the capital Mogadishu. There appeared to be a note of panic in Zenawi’s warning that this must not be allowed to happen.

The problem is that the interim Somali government of Prime Minister Ali Mohamed Gedi, now back in Mogadishu thanks to Ethiopian arms, includes many of the warlord factions. Meanwhile, the Somali military, such as it is, is largely made up of former street fighters. And when government forces attempt to snuff out any attempted return on warlord fiefdoms, it could very easily be taken as a signal for fighters to revert to their old loyalties and a return of chaos. If, however, Ethiopian troops endeavored to block a recrudescence of the warlords, it would mean a continuation of its military presence for far longer than the two weeks that Zenawi announced yesterday.

The crucial question is: Has the Ethiopian invasion created a vacuum or an opportunity? Gedi is appealing for African Union peacekeepers. But even if plans for such a deployment were to emerge from the regional summit called urgently by Kenya’s President Mwai Kibaki, it would take weeks if not months before peacekeepers could arrive. This is assuming that the AU could field such a force in addition to its commitments in Darfur. Somalia does not have that much time. A UN force seems more practical but thus far there is no sign of political will from any Security Council member. Even the Americans have been careful to act behind the scenes in encouraging the Ethiopian intervention. There may perhaps now be an opportunity for people power. Mogadishu residents were reportedly enraged to see two of the old warlords back in town. But could popular demonstrations for peace and reconciliation actually bring it about? Gedi might be well advised to extend an olive branch to the UIC leaders who are currently wanted men, though UIC foot soldiers have been offered amnesties. He might also insist that there will be no return to factionalism and those former warlords must seek power through the interim government and ultimately at the ballot box. What his government must not be doing is relying on the Ethiopian Army to sustain it. Addis Ababa should take its troops home quickly.

If that leaves a vacuum into which once again the forces of chaos crowd, then blame for the tragic consequences will be laid at Ethiopia’s door. The Bush blunders in Iraq demonstrated the folly of military intervention without a plan for peace. It also highlighted the extreme dubiousness of such attacks in the first place. Somalia’s troubles were born of outside interference and this latest example may not have helped.